Coming into its own
Google's $750 million acquisition of AdMob in November of last year brought renewed attention to the mobile marketing and advertising sector. The momentum continued with Apple's takeover of Quattro Wireless in early January and, more recently, Amobee's purchase of RingRing Media.
Consolidation among mobile ad networks is clearly lining up to be a major theme in the year ahead. Even so, achieving scale in display advertising on mobile devices is just one piece in a much larger puzzle -- that of using mobile to showcase full-blown marketing and commerce experiences.
Marketers often talk glowingly about mobile's flexibility and how effective it is at activating other media. However, mobile has traditionally been a less effective vehicle than other media for end-to-end consumer experiences. In order for mobile to reach mass adoption among marketers, the medium has to develop beyond its core strengths in communication and messaging.
Fortunately, startup activity is rife across many keys areas of the mobile sector, and the next 12 to 18 months should see many of the missing pieces fall into place. The continued fusion of mobile and social and the appetite for apps (among both consumers and brands) will facilitate more involved marketing experiences. In fact, location- and social-aware apps and utilities will be a key avenue for brands looking to engage consumers on the go.
Mobile advertising will likewise grow more sophisticated, with improved targeting capabilities and richer, more engaging options across multiple channels, from apps to browsers to SMS. Augmented reality (AR) seems destined to generate more ink than activity or revenue in 2010, given the limited number of mobile handsets that support it, but AR is worth keeping an eye on nonetheless because of what it portends for the future of mobile marketing. It represents an innovative way of creating a virtual overlay to the physical world by combining and maximizing on-board device features (e.g., camera, GPS, accelerometer, broadband connectivity).
With the rise in mobile broadband access and the proliferation of multimedia smartphones, video viewing (and consequently, video advertising) is set to become a more integral part of the mobile experience. Paid content models such as iTunes will continue to expand to mobile devices, but the growth in mobile web and application usage will also create opportunities for marketers to engage with viewers in both professional and user-generated video content.
On the commerce side, mobile has been used more for product and pricing research than for actual purchases, and 2009 in particular was notable for the uptake of barcode scanning among smartphone users. Now, the migration of couponing to mobile devices, combined with the integration of offers within social networks and an increase in payment mechanisms designed specifically for the medium, will help marketers to take their programs one step further.
Finally, it's worth remembering that the recent M&A activity in mobile display has been about analytics as well as advertising. Building an effective ROI case for mobile has long been a stumbling block for many marketers, especially when it comes to multi-channel campaigns running across the mobile web, apps, and messaging platforms. Given that consumer uptake of mobile marketing, apps, and commerce continues to be brisk, cracking the analytics nut remains more crucial than ever. Not surprisingly, entrepreneurs are rushing to fill the void, and mobile analytics figures to be a growth business in 2010.
With that context in mind, following are mobile categories and representative companies to watch in 2010.
Mobile social networks
Given its roots in communication, mobile has always been a social medium. Yet as voice recedes in importance, social networks increasingly constitute the medium for communicating on mobile devices. They are emerging as one of the primary ways consumers exchange and discuss information, content, and media. As I noted in my recent eMarketer report, around 14 percent of all U.S. mobile phone users and nearly 40 percent of mobile internet users will access social networks from their mobile devices in 2010.
Location-based networks have been around for several years. Loopt andBrightkite, for example, helped establish the mold of "checking in" to find nearby friends, places, and activities. Then Foursquare effectively broke the mold by adding a gaming element that enables users to compete for badges and points based on the number of times they visit a particular location. (Loopt has since acquired Graffiti, which offers a game-playing function similar to Foursquare.)
Layering in social competition has struck a nerve with mobile users and provided the mobile social networking space with some much-needed exposure and momentum. Foursquare has garnered much of the recent publicity, creating something of a herd effect, but the space is crowded with competitors, such as Gowalla, that combine social gaming with the ability to leave tips or reviews for fellow users.
As these services achieve a critical mass, so grows the potential for a powerful word-of-mouth effect or direct marketing opportunities related to favorite locations. Marketers may be interested in aggregators like buzzd, which combines reviews and ratings from buzzd members with feeds from Twitter, Gowalla, Foursquare, Loopt, and Brightkite, plus content from partners that include Zagat, Flavorpill, Citysearch, Metromix, and Upcoming.
Ultimately, though, the stiffest competition might come from established players such as Yelp, which attracts more than 25 million visitors per month and just added a check-in feature to its iPhone app. Whereas location-based mobile social networks first surfaced as friend finders, primarily in urban and ex-urban areas, and subsequently added reviews and ratings as an enhancement to their services, Yelp started out by developing a vast store of local content and layered on networking features, making it a potentially more attractive destination for consumers and marketers alike.
Other mobile social networking companies to watch include: Whrrl, most notably for its couponing partnership with Collective Bias (the social media unit of MARS); Booyah!; MocoSpace; Peperonity; andRummble.
Mobile advertising and media
Google's and Apple's recent acquisitions have helped to reshape the mobile advertising space, and the industry is now holding its breath for the next in what is expected to be a wave of consolidation. Yet that activity has not deterred global ad network InMobi, for example, from expanding its operations (including eyeing a possible launch in the U.S.). New players and a reconfigured landscape understandably generate a lot of interest, but there are other noteworthy developments afoot, all of which should help further propel the mobile advertising market forward in 2010.
One is improved targeting. Mobile has always been about location, but for a host of reasons, real-time, location-based advertising has always fallen short of its promise, particularly for the still-significant portion of mobile users who do not have smartphones. MoVoxx believes it has taken a step toward solving the problem by combining its GeoSense ad platform with merchant data from Citysearch (partnerships with other data aggregators such as iPromote and Marchex are said to be in the works), which gives MoVoxx access to proximity and behavioral data, plus offers from local merchants. Most notably, MoVoxx's inventory covers both SMS and in-app ad units, generating 300 million and 400 million impressions per month, respectively. Other companies in the location-based targeting space include AdLocal, which just entered the U.S. market after establishing itself as a major force in Japan, and Placecast.
Other companies defy easy classification, since they specialize in multiple, albeit complementary areas. One example is Mobclix, a mobile app analytics firm that recently launched an ad exchange featuring inventory from Quattro Wireless, Jumptap, InMobi, VideoEgg, Mojiva, Smaato, Millennial Media, and others (although AdMob is not among the included partners). The exchange helps build scale in a still-fragmented segment and in turn provides Mobclix with more robust app usage data. Another hybrid is Medialets, which offers a rich media and application advertising platform along with application analytics.
More on the media side is Zumobi, a company that started life as a mobile widget developer spun off from Microsoft. It has built apps for MSNBC, "TODAY", "The Rachel Maddow Show", and retailer REI. Zumobi takes a portfolio approach to its app properties, creating a network that advertisers can leverage. And speaking of widgets, Snac offers an innovative ad-supported widget dashboard designed for feature phones (although it is compatible with smartphones as well) that gives users a quick taste ("snacs") of their favorite content (including email, news, sports, social networking, and weather).
Mobile apps
The current emphasis on apps is understandable, especially given that when done right, they can be effective in extending the brand experience onto mobile devices. But with the number of mobile applications multiplying seemingly exponentially, in app stores and on users' smartphones, apps themselves require significant marketing support in order to ensure discoverability.
Appsfire and Chorus are two apps that signal the app discovery process, like many aspects of marketing today, is becoming more social. Appsfire allows users to create and distribute (via email or social networks) lists of their favorite apps, while Chorus combines user and expert reviews with social networking features, providing recommendations based on a user's download history and visibility into friends' app collections. Put another way, as recommendations begin to drive app usage, apps themselves must now be considered part of a brand's social media strategy.
App overload -- combined with the soaring costs of producing a full-featured branded app either in-house or employing a specialist agency (estimates run as high as $150,000) -- may deter marketers, especially smaller brands, from investing in the app space. AppMakr doesn't solve the app overload problem, but it significantly lowers the cost (and time) barriers for getting an app up and running, enabling marketers to create a native app that functions across multiple smartphone platforms for as little as $199. The goal of AppMakr parent company PointAbout is to get brands to think about apps as on-demand, disposable, and highly purpose-built, rather than as major marketing initiatives that require a massive investment of time and resources.
Augmented reality
Destined to be one of the big advertising buzz terms of 2010, AR hype is still running well ahead of revenue. U.K.-based Juniper Research estimates that AR will generate just $2 million globally in 2010. However, Juniper is optimistic about the outlook for AR. The company predicts revenues from advertising, point-of-sale, and subscription and per-event billing will climb to $732 million by 2014, driven largely by uptake in search and gaming.
Layar and Wikitude are dedicated mobile AR browsers, available in app form for the iPhone (3GS only) and select Android devices. Yelp likewise has augmented its iPhone app (again, just for the 3GS) with features that enable a digital overlay on the physical world. For example, point a camera at a restaurant and reviews or nearby friends might pop up on the screen. Stella Artois' "Le Bar Guide" iPhone app, for example, shows profiles of and directs users to nearby bars that serve the Belgian beer brand. (Cleverly, the app also features a taxi-locator service to help people home at the end of the evening.) The potential applications of this technology, which fuses what mobiles users are seeing and experiencing in a given location with what they might want to know about that location, are endless.
Another company to watch in this space is Japan-based Tonchidot, developer of the Sekai (World) Camera application. Sekai Camera allows users to create and access in near real-time what Tonchidot calls a "clickable world," composed of user-generated, location-based "air tags" that provide information about everything from retail stores to restaurants to landmarks. Adam Broitman, Cir.cus "ringleader" and fellow iMedia columnist, has been one of the primary evangelists for AR on the agency side.
Mobile video
Video currently ranks among the smallest mobile content categories. According to Nielsen's "A2/M2 Three Screen Report," 15.7 million mobile subscribers watched video on their mobile phones in Q3 2009. This includes those who viewed video content on the mobile web as well as through subscription-based services, downloads, and applications. However, the mobile video audience is expanding quickly -- Nielsen recorded a 53 percent jump in viewership year-over-year -- and most research suggests that video will develop into the leading mobile content category across a range of mobile devices by the middle of the decade.
Mobile video is also the content category that might most interest marketers looking to replicate the rich experiences they offer consumers through traditional media and the desktop web. As on the desktop, video on mobile devices is split among user-generated and professional content, although in both cases clips prevail over full-length shows and movies.
Still, comScore data suggests that mobile users are "socializing" video from and with their devices to a far greater extent than they are watching it. For example, in July 2009, 40 million users captured their own clips, 24.6 million sent a video directly to another person's phone, 16.9 million sent a video via email, and 14.8 million uploaded a video to the web. Much of this content is likely user-generated, but the extent to which consumers are sharing videos presents viral opportunities to marketers and publishers that can put compelling content within easy reach of mobile users.
Consequently, entrepreneurs are approaching the mobile video space from several angles. Startups such as Qik (which functions via the mobile web or downloadable applications available for all of the leading smartphone platforms), Livestream, Bambuser, and Flixwagon all serve the user-generated end of the market, allowing users to capture and directly stream video from their mobile devices to the web.
Robo.to, an application from the Justin Timberlake-funded development shop Particle, riffs on the social web and user-generated video category by enabling users to create, upload, and follow what are, in effect, four-second video status alerts. The clips are soundless (no talking) although they do support musical themes and can be augmented with a line of text. By inserting hashtags, users can essentially generate their own TV "channel," the appeal of which is easy to see for marketers looking to embrace innovative viral channels.
Kyte presents a brand-oriented twist on the user-generated livestreaming model by supplying a mobile video creation, distribution, and monetization channel for enterprises seeking to connect with mobile audiences. U.K.-based Next2Friends, a white-label platform, likewise expands on the live broadcasting model with a retailer-oriented toolset that facilitates polling of interest groups by location, targeted advertising, and email marketing tie-ins. Transpera, on the other hand, combines a distribution platform with its own ad network.
1Cast goes the professional route by sourcing news content through partnerships with cable and broadcast networks to in essence build a mobile video newsstand. Users can set up and share their own newscasts based on stories or topics of interest. This provides partners with an easy avenue to extend their content onto mobile devices and offers advertisers highly targeted opportunities for connecting with consumers around expressed interests.
Mobile commerce
M-commerce is something of a catch-all category that spans research, marketing, and payment. On the research front, barcode scanning and visual search are helping to change the way consumers explore products. Barcode scanning is particularly interesting because it turns a formerly overlooked part of product packaging into a potential avenue for deeper customer engagement. Apps like ShopSavvy, from developerBig in Japan, and Occipital's RedLaser saw widespread adoption among smartphone users in 2009, particularly for price comparison purposes. Notably, RedLaser topped 750,000 downloads by mid-December. Others in the space include Scanbuy, NeoMedia, and SnapTell (acquired by Amazon subsidiary A9 in June 2009).
Growing sophistication in mobile coupons is likewise helping to transform the way marketers connect with mobile consumers. On the one hand, there are coupon aggregators such as Cellfire, 8coupons, and Zavers, which allow consumers to register to receive multiple offers from diverse brands all in one place. Then there are location-aware coupon applications, such as Scoutmoband Yowza!!, which offer more targeted (and often exclusive) offers.
Mobile payments are the last piece to the m-commerce puzzle, and this segment, too, is seeing a lot of activity. For starters, the phenomenal level of Red Cross donations via text message to help earthquake victims in Haiti (more than $24 million as of this writing) has shown that mobile can be an effective payment medium. That campaign for the Red Cross was powered by Mobile Accord's mGive platform, which is designed specifically for nonprofit organizations. Other startups, however, are looking to adapt the SMS micro-payments model for for-profit purposes. One is Venmo, currently in private beta, which bills itself as offering the "advantages of using credit cards without having to carry cash around." Another is MPOWER Mobile, whose YAP product suite is designed for merchants (as well as individuals) to send and receive payments via SMS, including features that enable phones to accept credit and debit card payments.
App-based payment systems are also generating a lot of excitement. One of the hottest is Square, Twitter founder Jack Dorsey's latest venture. It enables phones (starting with the iPhone/iPod touch) to accept physical credit card payments using a reader that plugs into the phone's headset/microphone jack. Verifone'sPAYware Mobile and the mophie marketplace are similar payment solutions that combine a hardware and software component, although both require a merchant account to process payments, whereas Square does not.
Mobile analytics
Last, but certainly not least, comes analytics. Nielsen and comScore are the established players in the market, thanks to their respective acquisitions of panel-based measurement firms Telephia and M:Metrics and the scale they bring with their other web and traditional media offerings. However, other specialists abound. On the application analytics side, they include Flurry and Pinch Media, which agreed to merge in December 2009. (The combined company will come under the Flurry banner.) As noted, Medialets and Mobclix also figure in the analytics as well as the advertising space.
A new company to watch is Ground Truth, which has just emerged from stealth mode. In contrast to survey- and meter-based measurement firms, Ground Truth gathers mobile web usage data directly from carrier partners, which allows it to capture a larger but also more granular universe of activity, including detailed clickstream data. In this respect, Ground Truth figures to be Hitwise of the mobile analytics space.
Conclusion
Both startups and established firms in the mobile space are engaged in a concerted effort to make mobile a mainstream marketing medium. Think of it as filling in the blanks, ranging from building targeted communities for mobile users to developing platforms and ad units for reaching users with relevant offers and messages all the way to measurement. These efforts will help to make mobile more of a medium of immersive experiences, and, to an even greater degree, a medium of information. The more effectively that you can parse that data, the more successful you will be in ensuring a place for your brand in the data stream and in communicating with your target audience.
Both startups and established firms in the mobile space are engaged in a concerted effort to make mobile a mainstream marketing medium. Think of it as filling in the blanks, ranging from building targeted communities for mobile users to developing platforms and ad units for reaching users with relevant offers and messages all the way to measurement. These efforts will help to make mobile more of a medium of immersive experiences, and, to an even greater degree, a medium of information. The more effectively that you can parse that data, the more successful you will be in ensuring a place for your brand in the data stream and in communicating with your target audience.
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